Those in the Know, Always Knew

ANC backtracks on media tribunal

MANDY ROSSOUW | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Jan 14 2011 10:18

The African National Congress (ANC) has temporarily backed down from its fervent call to establish a media appeals tribunal, but is adamant the press council must reform its rules to include the imposition of fines, in addition to the publication of apologies, for newspapers' mistakes.

President Jacob Zuma did not mention the media tribunal in his January 8 address in Polokwane and instead appealed to the print media to "speed up its transformation processes".

This week one of the staunchest supporters of the tribunal, ANC spokesperson Jackson Mthembu, said the ANC had toned down its demands for a media appeals tribunal to give the media time "to reform" themselves. Self-regulation, previously dismissed by the ANC as inadequate, is now back on the table.

Said Mthembu: "We will give you the space to transform yourself and then see where it takes us."

If the press council imposed measures that "discourage irresponsible reporting" the ANC would stick to the current model of self-regulation, he said. Although Mthembu would not venture to suggest the measures the ANC would consider adequate, he did say that international examples should be considered.

In India and Denmark the law provides for the fining of journalists in extreme circumstances.

Brief relief
The media heaved a collective sigh of relief when Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe assured editors at a meeting in October that sufficient reform of the self-regulation model would keep the media tribunal at bay. But shortly afterwards Zuma threw a spanner in the works by again maintaining there was a need for a tribunal.

Zuma told a crowd of ANC supporters in Stellenbosch: "That is why the ANC called for the exploration of the need for a media tribunal. The organisation will continue processing the resolutions of both Polokwane and the NGC [national general council] in Durban in this regard."

The threat of a tribunal, backed by a Polokwane resolution that asks for the possibility of such a tribunal to be investigated, will remain. "If we feel [reform] is falling short we'll continue to do what we set out to do," Mthembu warned this week.

CONTINUES BELOW

Shortly after the national general council of the ANC in September last year, the ruling party was adamant that it would initiate a parliamentary process to devise laws providing for the establishment of a tribunal.

It was originally envisaged that the body would consist of representatives from various groups in society and have the powers to force journalists and newspapers to pay fines if information printed was incorrect.

In July last year Mthembu was adamant there should be even harsher punishment for errant journalists. "If you have to go to prison, let it be. If you have to pay millions for defamation, let it be. If journalists have to be fired because they don't contribute to the South Africa we want, let it be," he told the Mail & Guardian.

Under pressure
Mthembu said the parliamentary process had been put on hold until the conclusion of current processes aimed at strengthening self-regulation.

Press Ombudsman Joe Thloloe said the ANC had backed down from its original proposal because of the ruling party's numerous engagements with editors and media professionals, as well as public pressure.

The media tribunal proposal drew an enormous response from all over the world, with Zuma being questioned about it at international summits. Inside South Africa various pressure groups, such as the Right2Know campaign, came into being and protest marches and petitions were the order of the day.

"The public has reacted strongly to the suggestion of a media tribunal and this led to the ANC toning it down," Thloloe said. The proposal to include fines in the sanctioning of errant journalists will be considered by the Press Council, which is receiving submissions on the reform of the council and its rules until March.

Several public hearings will be held in Johannesburg, Cape Town, Bloemfontein, Port Elizabeth and Durban, after which new proposals will be adopted by the council with the approval of its constituent members, which include the South African National Editors' Forum and Print Media South Africa.

Thloloe said all proposals must meet the criteria of strengthening journalism and being practically implementable. Although Mthembu did not attach any time frame to the process, Thloloe said it would probably take up most of this year.

Courtesy Mail & Guardian

Africa Rising

There's a new gold rush under way for the African consumer, a campaign that spans the continent and aims to reach an emerging middle class. These are the people who have begun to embrace cellphone messages, restaurant meals and trips down supermarket aisles.

In Kenya, a battle between units of Britain's Vodafone Group PLC, and India's Bharti Airtel Ltd. has driven down the consumer's cost of a text message to a penny. Yum Brands Inc. of the U.S. recently said it wants to double its KFC outlets in the next few years to 1,200.

And Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has agreed to pay nearly $2.5 billion to buy 51% of South Africa's Massmart Holdings Ltd., with plans to use the discount retailer as a foothold for continental expansion. Andy Bond, Wal-Mart's regional executive vice-president, describes the potential as a "10- to 20-year play."

Who's Buying?

Read profiles of three African consumers

Ethiopia's Consumer Class

View Slideshow

Per-Anders Pettersson For The Wall Street Journal

A young women tries a pair of red Prada sunglasses at the "Lady Shop"in a shopping mall in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Africa's New Wealth

View Interactive

See a timeline of foreign investment in Africa.

A New Gold Rush

View Interactive

See a map and country-by-country facts on African economies.

Some analysts believe a billion-person continental market already has arrived. Consultancy McKinsey & Co. says the number of middle-income consumers—those who can spend for more than just the necessities—in Africa has exceeded the figure for India. The firm predicts consumer spending will reach $1.4 trillion in 2020, from about $860 billion in 2008.

While Africa's resource wealth continues to lure the bulk of foreign investment, the rise of that new consumer class is beginning to shift the balance. From 2000 to 2009, foreign direct investment to Africa increased sixfold to $58.56 billion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. And that includes a sharp drop during the global financial crisis, from $72.18 billion in 2008.

A growing percentage of foreign direct investment has been going to sectors such as manufacturing and services, with the value of mergers and acquisitions in the manufacturing sector hitting a record $16 billion in 2008.

While overall investment in Africa slowed in 2009 amid the global economic downturn, investment in the services sector picked up, boosted by Vodafone's $2.4 billion increase in its stake in South Africa's largest mobile-phone operator by subscribers.

High commodity prices have helped sustain robust expansion in Africa's resource-rich economies. And with that, better infrastructure, improved governance and the creation of jobs through private investment have helped drive the growth of the middle class.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that gross domestic product in the 47 countries of sub-Saharan Africa rose 5% last year and forecasts 5.5% growth for this year.

But there's still a long way to go before Africa becomes the next Asia. Zimbabwe's economy contracted by half from 2000 to 2008, a period of sustained political turmoil for a country that once was the breadbasket of southern Africa. And cocoa producer Ivory Coast is embroiled in the continent's latest election dispute, with two candidates claiming to be president.

Poverty remains rampant. And Africa ranks at the bottom of the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business survey, which takes into account such things as taxes, enforcing contracts and protecting investors.

Many African governments are under pressure to create jobs, even if it requires giving foreign companies a greater role in domestic economies.

That's a major hurdle for African governments still grappling with a colonial past. From the 16th to the early 20th centuries, Africa was the source of an estimated 11 million slaves in Europe and the Americas.

Trevor Manuel, the head of South Africa's planning commission, says the sometimes-arbitrary boundaries set by former European colonial powers have disrupted efforts to knit together economies even in places, like West Africa, where people share a common language. "Rationally, we should be one market," says the former finance minister.

A study last year on West African transportation by the U.S. Agency for International Development found that Togo had 5.7 checkpoints per 100 kilometers, at which a total of $25.62 in bribes were demanded resulting in more than two hours of delays. In neighboring Benin, the checkpoint waits weren't as long but truck drivers had to pay about $95.03 in bribes per 100 kilometers.

The Next Continental Shift

Multinational corporations are racing to make the most of Africa's burgeoning middle class. With reporters on the ground there, a Wall Street Journal series examines the changes.

In Friday's edition, read about how Indian and British mobilephone companies are battling to win subscribers in Kenya.

Later: how African entrepreneurs are capitalizing on growing demand for used American cars in Nigeria, where young professionals want to avoid perilous public buses.

Read More

• SABMiller Taps Ethiopia's 'Holy Water'

As a result, some veteran Africa watchers are skeptical about how quickly a bet on the continent's consumer will pay off.

"Where is the money tree? Where is this consumer fruit?" asks Duncan Clarke, chairman of Global Pacific & Partners, an investment advisory firm specializing in oil and gas.

In the near term, Mr. Clarke and others believe Africa's most promising opportunities won't be found in its new shopping malls but beneath its soil and sea beds, where big oil and global miners have long toiled.

Many consumer giants are more sanguine. Drinks company Diageo PLC sells Guinness stout, Smirnoff vodka, Baileys liqueur and Johnnie Walker whiskey in more than 40 countries across Africa. Chocolate maker Nestlé SA, which built its first plant in Africa in 1927, has more than two dozen factories on the continent.

Growth is changing the complexion of countries where these companies operate. In Ethiopia, which still receives about a billion dollars a year in U.S. aid, there's an expanding niche of young urban professionals. The country's economy has been growing at a double-digit clip powered by services, agriculture and infrastructure building for the past half-decade.

The growth has drawn back the Ethiopian diaspora, who had fled the famine-prone country. They are returning now with expertise and capital.

"I do believe we are on the cusp of a major transformation," says Eleni Gabre-Madhin, a former World Bank official who now heads Ethiopia's first commodities exchange.

—Robb M. Stewart
contributed to this article.

Written by Peter Wonacott of the Wall Street Journal

Heineken Buys 5 Breweries in Nigeria

Heineken NV, the world's third-largest brewer, acquired controlling interests in five breweries in Nigeria, expanding its capacity by nearly a third in the fast-growing African market.

The acquisition would bring additional capacity of 3,7-million hectolitres to alleviate capacity constraints in the market and to improve the geographic spread of its production.

Heineken, the largest brewer in Western Europe, has been steadily increasing its presence in faster growing developing economies, notably with last year's purchase of the beer business of Mexico's Femsa.

Heineken, which currently has a capacity of about 12-million hectolitres in Nigeria, said in a statement that it had bought two holding companies from drinks and packaging group Sona Group, Nigeria, for an undisclosed amount.

This had given it controlling stakes in the Sona, IBBI, Benue, Life and Champion breweries, which currently brew brands such as Goldberg, Williams Dark Ale and Malta Gold.

Heineken in 2009 had a share of 64% of the 16,5-million hectolitre Nigerian beer market, the second largest market in Africa and growing at an annual rate of 9% in the 10 years to 2009.

"This important move reflects Heineken's strategy of increasing our exposure to and growth from developing markets. Nigeria is one of the world's most exciting beer markets and one of the most important countries for Heineken," Heineken's Africa and Middle East chief Tom de Man said. -- Reuters

Foreign Purchasers on Nigerian Stock Exchange Double

The Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE, yesterday announced that the Foreign Portfolio Investment, FPI, in the market has risen to N381.34 billion in 2010, from N202.483 billion recorded in 2009, representing a growth of 46.9 per cent.

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Foreign Purchasers on Nigerian Stock Exchange Double

The Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE, yesterday announced that the Foreign Portfolio Investment, FPI, in the market has risen to N381.34 billion in 2010, from N202.483 billion recorded in 2009, representing a growth of 46.9 per cent.

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Investors wake up to Africa

Walmart's entry into Africa through the purchase of a majority stake in Massmart reflects a significant change in the attitude of global investors to the continent. African nations are being recognised as consumers -- modest consumers in the global context, but consumers nonetheless

As World Cup and vuvuzela euphoria gripped the globe in mid-2010, investment bank Goldman Sachs released a report on the potential of the continent. It compared Africa's potential growth with those of the Bric nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- and the Next 11 (N-11), the most populous emerging countries after the Brics.

While not outstripping the performance of the Bric countries individually, the top 11 countries in Africa -- both in population and GDP -- could together become larger than both Brazil and Russia by 2050, the report found.

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South African Economy forecast to grow at 5% thru 2050

The South African economy is expected to be ranked seventh globally in terms of its real average annual growth rate between 2009 and 2050, growing faster than Brazil and Russia in dollar terms.

However, it is likely to fall out of the top 20 economies by 2050, as Nigeria and Vietnam move up the rankings, according to a study by global business services company PricewaterhouseCoopers released on Friday.

The report, The World in 2050, concluded that the financial crisis of 2008 had accelerated the shift in global economic power to emerging economies, with China likely to overtake the US as the biggest economy by 2050.

The study projected SA’s real economic growth rate to average 5% annually between 2009 and 2050, its population to rise by an annual average of 0,3%, its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by an average 3,6% a year and for it to experience an average annual growth rate of 1,1% due to changes in exchange rates.

The estimates were made in dollar terms — taking into account the effect of real exchange rate changes relative to the dollar — and in terms of domestic currency and purchasing power parity.

SA’s projected growth rate compared with Vietnam’s 8,8%, India’s 8,1% , Nigeria’s 7,9% , China’s 5,9% , Indonesia’s 5,8% , Turkey’s 5,1% , Brazil’s 4,4% , Russia’s 4% , Australia’s 2,4% , and less than 3% for the Group of Seven.

The E-7 emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to overtake the G-7 (the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada) before 2020 if GDP is measured using purchasing power parity , which corrects for price levels tend ing to be lower in emerging economies.

The shift in the global economic order would be slower but just as inexorable if GDP were measured on market exchange rates. The E-7 economies were projected to overtake the G-7 in 2032 and China to overtake the US in the same year, although on a purchasing power parity basis this would probably occur in 2018.

By 2050 the E-7 economies would be about 64% larger than the current G-7 when measured in dollar terms at market exchange rates — now they represent about 36% of the G-7 — or about twice as large in purchasing power parity terms (currently 72% on this basis). China, despite its projected market growth slowdown, was expected to be 35% larger than the US by 2050 at market exchange rates, or 57% larger in purchasing power parity terms.

"The key drivers of the E-7’s growth are China and India, although the former’s growth will slow down progressively due to its significantly lower labour force growth arising from its one-child policy. India’s growth will remain fairly strong even in the last decade of our projections."

Summing up the shifts in global economic power, the report said "this changing world order poses both challenges and opportunities for businesses in the current advanced economies".

"On the one hand, competition from emerging market multinationals will increase steadily over time and the latter will move up the value chain in manufacturing and some services (including financial services, given the weakness of the western banking system after the crisis).

"At the same time, rapid growth in consumer markets in the major emerging economies associated with a fast-growing middle class will provide great new opportunities for western companies that can establish themselves in these markets.

"These will be highly competitive, so this is not an easy option — it requires long-term investment — but without it western companies will increasingly be playing in the slow lane of history ".

Source: Business Day

Saudis to build $100m in Mozambique

Saudi Arabia's Rani Investment Group said on Monday it would break ground on a $100m resort on a Mozambique island next year, aiming to cash in on foreign tourists.

Construction will begin on Santa Carolina island in the picturesque Bazaruto archipelago off central Mozambique's Indian Ocean coast, said Rani's Mozambique representative Rui Monteiro.

"It will cost in the region of $100m ," he said.

Mozambique's long coastline, pristine beaches and warm climate are increasingly popular tourist destinations. The Bazaruto islands form a marine national park and are famous for their unspoilt scenery and coral reefs.

Rani is the biggest tourism investor in the country, with various resorts in other provinces. The Santa Carolina project will include a 100-room hotel, 24 apartments and vacation houses as well as a dock on the mainland.

Mozambique's tourism ministry this year approved projects worth more than $650m from January to September alone excluding the Bazaruto project, up 60% from the same period in 2009.

Visitor numbers to the country have increased from 711 000 to three million over the past six years.

Source: Fin24

Hello Africa, India is Calling

Millions of mobile phone subscribers in Africa saw the icon on their phone screens change from Kuwaiti company Zain to Indian company Bharti Airtel last year.

The change means little to the average customer, but for the continent, it's another sign that India is moving in.

The expansion by Bharti Airtel into 16 African countries underscores the rise of India in Africa, at a time when much of the focus on foreign investment here has been on China.

...

India and China are vying for Africa because of the bottom line: Africa represents new growth.

"This is the last growth continent in the world. Europe is a done industry. The US is a done industry. Southeast Asia is old," said Sunil Mittal, founder and chairperson of Bharti Airtel. "Our model is not suitable for a matured market. We need growth and Africa is the right place to grow."

Continue to full story...

The Lion Kings

MUCH has been written about the rise of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the shift in economic power eastward as Asia outruns the rest of the world. But the surprising success story of the past decade lies elsewhere. An analysis by The Economist finds that over the ten years to 2010, no fewer than six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa.

Read the full story here (The Economist)

More math students taking higher level exams

REMARKABLE in this year’s Independent Examination Board (IEB) matric results is the growth of the numbers of candidates who wrote two mathematics exams that neither examine official matric work nor are required for entry into university.

Mathematics paper three and Advanced Programme Mathematics (APM) gave those who passed them an edge at university, IEB CEO Anne Oberholzer said yesterday.

Higher Education SA CEO Duma Malaza agreed, saying both subjects were "useful preparation" for university-level study and therefore "quite important".

The IEB results were released this morning , showing that 98,38% of this year’s 8285 IEB exam writers passed, 81,53% well enough to study at university.

A total of 641533 candidates wrote the state-set matric exams. Their results are to be released by Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga on Thursday . Last year 60,7% of those who wrote the state-set matric exams passed, 19,8% well enough to study towards a university degree.

There was a 68,5% increase in candidates writing the IEB’s maths exam paper three, from 1414 candidates in 2008 to 2383 last year; and 40% growth over the same period in the numbers writing APM, which is likened to the UK’s A-level in maths.

Ms Oberholzer said despite neither subject being a prerequisite for maths-rich university programmes, there was a realisation that having a good maths base was useful in university . "Without a good maths base you can be in trouble, and it is easier to prepare for maths at school because it is a more nurturing environment."

While the girls at Johannesburg’s St Mary’s School, Waverley, were encouraged to study the curriculum for maths paper three, there was no need to encourage those who took APM, headmistress Deanne King said.

"Those girls who do AP maths just enjoy it. They are really good mathematicians ," she said.

Maths paper three was taught to all the matrics who had chosen to study maths instead of maths literacy at Johannesburg’s St Stithians Boys’ College, deputy headmaster Peter Wright said.

This was because the knowledge imparted was "very useful", and the boys had the option of not writing the final paper three exam, he said.

While the state sets its own maths paper three, the IEB sets the APM exam for both, and there was a "50-50 split" between the two in terms of numbers of matric candidates who wrote the subject, Ms Oberholzer said.

This year the IEB would pilot an advanced programme in English that would be fully implemented next year , she said.

While there was discussion on whether eventually to offer an advanced programme in physics and chemistry, a final decision on this would be taken later and there were no plans to offer advanced programmes in all matric subjects, Ms Oberholzer said.

Top Ten Performing Stocks in the JSE All Share Index for 2010

Richards Bay Coal Terminal exports increase

Richards Bay Coal Terminal Ltd., Africa’s largest terminal for the fuel, said shipments increased for the first year in five, climbing 3.8 percent to 63.43 million metric tons last year on growing demand from Asia.

Full story on Bloomberg...

Zambian economy to grow 7.1% in 2010

Zambia's economy is likely to grow by 7.1% in 2010, marginally up on earlier forecasts, due to increased mining activity, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said Thursday.

"The preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) show that the economy is likely to grow by 7.1% in 2010 compared to the 6.4% recorded in 2009," said CSO director John Kalumbi.

"This growth is largely driven by increased output in mining, quarrying, transport, agriculture and forestry," he added.

Zambia's finance and national planning minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said earlier this year that the economy would grow by 6.6% in 2010, and 6.4% in 2011.

Zambia is Africa's largest producer of copper and mining is the country's main economic driver.

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